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Jonny Drama
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Scratching my head in the right seat of a Douglas product
Posts: 237
Originally Posted by FangsF15
Aug AE Plug
WB A 406x 23.4%
WB B 128xx 74.2%
NB A 145xx 83.8%
Nothing far out of the norm. Though WB A went more junior than the Jul AE, its still slightly more senior than the last year or so, and still solidly in the 2000/2001 hires (and 1500 numbers from a 2014 hire). Interesting to see NB A go a little more senior than anytime in the post Covid era after being very stable at about 86-87%. WB B is within a percent and a half of the recent trends
Congrats to all.
I would say its trending considerably more junior than last year at this time .
AUG 2023 AE had 55 Widebody A vacancies
Plug was 3820
AUG 2024 AE had 40 Widebody A vacancies
plug was 4060
if this trend keeps going Im predicting 2010s, with an outside chance of 2014s, getting Widebody A by Feb 2025 AE. Theyll be in the 5000-5200 range then.
Planetrain
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,730
Originally Posted by Jonny Drama
I would say its trending considerably more junior than last year at this time .
AUG 2023 AE had 55 Widebody A vacancies
Plug was 3820
AUG 2024 AE had 40 Widebody A vacancies
plug was 4060
if this trend keeps going Im predicting 2010s, with an outside chance of 2014s, getting Widebody A by Feb 2025 AE. Theyll be in the 5000-5200 range then.
If the seniority for WBA moves 240 numbers in a year, how do you see it move 1000 more numbers in 6 months?
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FangsF15
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,728
Originally Posted by Jonny Drama
I would say its trending considerably more junior than last year at this time .
AUG 2023 AE had 55 Widebody A vacancies
Plug was 3820
AUG 2024 AE had 40 Widebody A vacancies
plug was 4060
if this trend keeps going Im predicting 2010s, with an outside chance of 2014s, getting Widebody A by Feb 2025 AE. Theyll be in the 5000-5200 range then.
You are neglecting to account for total size of the seniority list. Number to hold doesnt work across time with a growing/shrinking list. There are nearly 1100 more pilots on the list than a year ago.
In Aug of 2023, it took 23.5% in the company to hold WB A. This AE it took 23.4%. Using percent to hold controls for the size of the list, and what it takes to hold becomes very consistent, and trends can much more easily be analyzed.
If you go back up one level and look at the AE Trend Analysis pinned thread, the numbers will become apparent. Ive thought about making a simple graph to help visualize it further.
2010 hires are nearly 1300 numbers away from WB A. It would have to drop to 31% for 2010 hires to get it in 6 months (on todays size list). Even if we added a net of 500 pilots in 6 months, it would still need to go to ~30%. It does vary seasonally, and last Feb, WB A got down to 27%, but in Mar was under 25%. I highly, highly doubt your prediction, even with some larger WB numbers coming over the winter.
Last edited by FangsF15; 08-16-2024 at 02:00 AM.
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CrazyEight
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2023
Posts: 59
Originally Posted by CrazyEight
Anyone else see 2007's entering WB-A? Maybe Crazy 2008's at the tail end of 2025? There have been zero so far and that group is over 1000 pilots. I am still expecting a higher take rate from the 2000 and 2001 era over the next few years.
I am sure Delta is sitting on the BOS opening, weighing all the events around the world. Lots of variables out there.
High take rate in the 2000/2001 range. Still clipping at early 2007 hires. Cruising the list, there are a lot of pilots hired in their mid-20s from 2007 to 2008. For each of those that takes a WBA slot, that will lock up a seat for two decades! 20 years, WBA. I see a continuation of 2000/2001 taking WBA as they finish out a career. The 2007/2008 group will have kids out of high school and waive weekends off.
2007's trickling in for the balance of 2024
2008 and 10's 2025
2014's in 2026
Yes there are deliveries, but the 767's go at some point
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CrazyEight
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2023
Posts: 59
Originally Posted by Jonny Drama
I would say its trending considerably more junior than last year at this time .
AUG 2023 AE had 55 Widebody A vacancies
Plug was 3820
AUG 2024 AE had 40 Widebody A vacancies
plug was 4060
if this trend keeps going Im predicting 2010s, with an outside chance of 2014s, getting Widebody A by Feb 2025 AE. Theyll be in the 5000-5200 range then.
I like your optimism, but I would temper my Ferrari 458 searches!
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Jonny Drama
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Scratching my head in the right seat of a Douglas product
Posts: 237
Originally Posted by FangsF15
You are neglecting to account for total size of the seniority list. Number to hold doesnt work across time with a growing/shrinking list. There are nearly 1100 more pilots on the list than a year ago.
In Aug of 2023, it took 23.5% in the company to hold WB A. This AE it took 23.4%. Using percent to hold controls for the size of the list, and what it takes to hold becomes very consistent, and trends can much more easily be analyzed.
If you go back up one level and look at the AE Trend Analysis pinned thread, the numbers will become apparent. Ive thought about making a simple graph to help visualize it further.
2010 hires are nearly 1300 numbers away from WB A. It would have to drop to 31% for 2010 hires to get it in 6 months (on todays size list). Even if we added a net of 500 pilots in 6 months, it would still need to go to ~30%. It does vary seasonally, and last Feb, WB A got down to 27%, but in Mar was under 25%. I highly, highly doubt your prediction, even with some larger WB numbers coming over the winter.
My point is it made that move with 30% fewer vacancies compared to a year ago. Imagine what happens this year a little deeper into Widebody AE season on an AE with 50-60 spots instead of 40.
And if it made it to 27% last year, its going to go down even more this year with more large airframes. I am not sure of the number of yoy 350/330 increase. I would wager that the majority of ER downsizing will come from the bottom and not the top, especially at first until the seniors really start to feel the pain of worsening trips.
And I have the beginning of 2010s clocking in conservatively at 30% by February 1. 5100/17000. Realistically closer to 29%. Since the list should be slightly larger and they should be slightly under that.
Last edited by Jonny Drama; 08-16-2024 at 07:08 AM.
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Jonny Drama
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Scratching my head in the right seat of a Douglas product
Posts: 237
Originally Posted by CrazyEight
I like your optimism, but I would temper my Ferrari 458 searches!
😂 Im more of a late 60s, early 70s American muscle guy myself. And while it will be cool to say I can hold Widebody A, I think another 15-18 mos for me (early-mid 2014), I will be waiting a lot longer to pull the trigger.
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NuGuy
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,890
Originally Posted by FangsF15
Interesting to see NB A go a little more senior than anytime in the post Covid era after being very stable at about 86-87%.
Not suprising. This is classic fNWA bidding behavior with monthly bids. Once the training window moves out past holidays or summer, bids always went more senior. The best part about it is it is very predicable, like the tides.
More people are also cluing into the soft pay the NBs have. Contrary to popular opinion here, most people don't follow this stuff, and so the zeitgeist changes way slower than you'd think. I was talking with someone a few weeks ago, and they had just figured out how RR pay works, got extended a day, and got a fat paycheck for 4 days work (with some EDP for good measure). Eventually word, slow as it is, gets around.
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Jonny Drama
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Scratching my head in the right seat of a Douglas product
Posts: 237
Cruising the list, there are a lot of pilots hired in their mid-20s from 2007 to 2008.
I would say A lot is a bit subjective
. I would have been 27 y/o for almost the entire 07/08 hiring window and there are only 65-70 pilots younger than me that were hired then. I didnt get hired until 34 btw and still will crack the top 150, so I think a lot in their mid 20s is a little misleading.
Last edited by Jonny Drama; 08-16-2024 at 08:07 AM.
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